The Daily Feather — Tooting Our Horn

Trumpets have trumpeted since antiquity when humans discovered that resonant sounds could be produced by blowing into animal horns and conch shells. Around 1500 BC, craftsmen began creating their own trumpets from wood, metal or ceramic. These ancient horns have been found all over the world in places like Asia, South America, Scandinavia and Egypt. According to the Book of Numbers, the trumpet was conceived as a signaling device for civic, religious or military purposes, not a musical instrument. Around 1800, Austrian trumpeter Anton Weidinger invented a new design that used holes and keys, like a clarinet or flute, to change the trumpet’s pitch. Despite the breakthrough, design flaws caused significant tuning issues. In 1818, German horn players Heinrich David Stölzel and Friedrich Blühmel innovated with a valved horn that redirected air into different lengths of tubing. With the help of instrument builder C. F. Sattler, the duo applied this technology and debuted the first valved trumpet in 1820.

The likes of Louis Armstrong, Dizzy Gillespie and Miles Davis made livings tooting their horns, leaving legacies of timeless jazz compilations. In the dry science, the forecasting community may not utilize the brass instrument for fundamental analysis, but it certainly comes in handy when successful prognostications come to fruition.

Today, we’re tooting our own horn. About a month ago, we Feathered that “the trade backdrop is turning hostile, and we don’t reference the well-known imports payback we all see coming in the current quarter. The danger lurks on the other side of the trade ledger.” The concern emanated from the May Kansas City (KC) Fed manufacturing survey’s export index falling down a rabbit hole and “guiding downwards second-quarter real goods exports.” Yesterday, the hard data capitulated.