The Daily Feather — Seven Dirty Words’ Backstory
With apologies to those who recognize the reference, sometimes only one thematical shoe fits. In 1972, George Carlin released his fourth stand-up album with one track -- “Seven Words You Can Never Say on Television.” Such was the stir, he was arrested for disturbing the peace when performing the routine at Milwaukee’s Summerfest that year. Though no tween would flinch today, at the time, letting any of these ‘dirty seven’ slip elicited BLEEP censoring on the small screen. While the list was not “official,” a radio broadcast featuring all seven culminated in a 5-4 Supreme Court decision in 1978. Per the ruling, FCC v. Pacifica Foundation found the FCC's declaratory ruling did not violate the First or Fifth Amendments. The decision constricted the extent to which the U.S. federal government could regulate speech on broadcast radio and television.
It was once the case on the Street that “inversion” was such a potty word, it conjured a bona fide obscenity -- “recession.” In years past, QI’s Dr. Gates tested this hypothesis in the wild, i.e., on trading floors, and documented spontaneous nervous-tick-type reactions. But that was then. Make mention of the “yield curve inversion” today and you get a “meh,” if anything, if not a glassy-eyed stare and a yawn. Recession risk has nearly faded from sight, from a 65% probability in June 2023 to 35% today.
For anyone still paying attention, yesterday’s March Conference Board Consumer Confidence warned the yield curve inversion that cried wolf isn’t finished howling.