The Daily Feather — Going Nowhere Fast
Pure runners choose the outdoors over a treadmill every time. If the weather is impossible, however, this indoor fitness machine keeps the heart thumping. In the first century AD, the Roman Empire incorporated a human hamster wheel into cranes to lift heavy loads; it maximized construction efficiency as never before. English engineer William Cubitt adapted the apparatus to grind corn in the early 1800s. It then caught the eye of the Society for the Improvement of Prison Discipline. No, the inmates weren’t grinding corn in the prison yard! Those sentenced to hard labor were subjected to the dreaded treadmill for up to 10 hours a day (and were fit as fiddles). Another 150 years passed before American mechanical engineer William Staub introduced the treadmill for home use. After reading Dr. Kenneth Cooper’s 1968 book Aerobics, Staub observed that individuals who ran a mile for eight minutes four to five times a week would be in better physical condition than those who did not. Genius, we know. Nonetheless, we’re all better off for the birth of the PaceMaster 600. In 2006, Runner’s World magazine paid tribute to Staub as his invention eliminated bad weather as a valid excuse to skip the run.
At its core, while the treadmill gives you miles, you’re still running in place. The same can be said of U.S. auto sales. Yesterday, June’s downside surprise – June sales slowed to a 15.29 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) compared to the consensus 15.80 million SAAR -- rounded out the second quarter average at 15.65 million. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, light vehicle sales clocked in at a -0.6% pace vis-à-vis 2023’s second quarter, the first YoY decline in eight quarters. The shorter-term trend has been challenged for an even longer time span: the two-quarter annualized rate registered declines in 2023’s fourth quarter (-0.6%), 2024’s first quarter (-4.4%) and 2024’s second quarter (-0.7%). U.S. auto demand is going nowhere fast (green line).